Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x97fe…8c21
crypto · 122 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$45 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage132d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 29 $46 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day May 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? May 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $28 −$2 -7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $12 $0 +3%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $28 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? May 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 28 $48 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Apr 18 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 30% −$92
other 27% −$4
tech 12% −$4
economics 9% −$1
finance 8% $0
sports 6% +$45
world 6% −$1
culture 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $5 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 16d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 16d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 17d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 17d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 18d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 18d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $20 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $21 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $21 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $11 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 114 -7.9% -16.7% 38% 20% -11.9%
all 120 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 22% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 22% -12.0%
10% -21.1% 19% -20.4%
15% -28.7% 17% -28.1%
20% -35.7% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.46 · official $20.46 (match) · 324 history records