Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97f9…3588 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+0%) realized +$239 · open −$114
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate73%55W / 20L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$463
7 days+$546
14 days−$299
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$527
other 24% −$50
world 6% +$111
sports 1% +$492
politics 1% −$70
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.5% -1.9% 82% 27% -3.6%
≤30d 26 -44.8% -50.0% 42% 15% -11.1%
≤90d 26 -44.8% -50.0% 42% 15% -11.1%
all 75 -4.5% -13.6% 73% 29% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 29% -9.3%
10% -21.9% 19% -18.0%
15% -29.4% 13% -25.9%
20% -36.3% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$745) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$91 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses55 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage680d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 52¢ $300 $182 −$118 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,251 +$25 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $501 +$54 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $803 +$119 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$228 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,929 +$30 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$22 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $201 +$20 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,701 +$15 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,610 +$119 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45-50 million views on day 1? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-20? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-20? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Monday? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 08 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? Jun 08 $745 −$745 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $303 +$107 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $701 +$45 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $3,569 +$133 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 06 $3,549 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 05 $534 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $515 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 03 $563 −$563 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 03 $551 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 03 $795 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 03 $1,034 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 03 $1,023 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 03 $1,003 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $983 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 03 $973 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $921 +$50 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $779 +$23 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $877 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 30 $798 +$79 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 30 $757 +$42 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $735 +$22 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Jan 26 $661 +$73 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 23 Jan 24 $48 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 22 Jan 23 $624 +$33 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $30 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 55m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $502 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,251 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $273 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 41h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $179 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $178 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $743 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $214 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $506 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $146 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $501 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $201 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $200 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $200 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,701 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 95¢ $1,200 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 88¢ $410 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $410 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $303 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $745 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 94¢ $701 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 8? BUY No 96¢ $3,569 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? BUY Down 99¢ $3,549 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.33 · official $700.18 · 169 history records