Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97f7…98e9 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$11
politics 25% $0
other 20% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 0% -11.2%
all 54 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.3%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage288d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $36 −$12 -33%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $78 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $93 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $28 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $43 +$3 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $11 $0 +5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $2 −$1 -79%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $12 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $13 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $26 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $16 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $48 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $45 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $45 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records