Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97f4…1479 crypto 1095 markets active 7h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate72%788W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$12
crypto 38% −$35
weather 15% +$6
other 3% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.2% -8.5% 90% 41% -9.7%
≤30d 233 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 1088 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 36% -10.1%
all 1088 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 36% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 36% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 15% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 5% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses788 / 300
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1088 / 1095
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1088 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? No 91¢ 91¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 93¢ 93¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 94¢ 93¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 89¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? No 96¢ 89¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? No 98¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $5 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $3 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $4 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $4 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 31h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $4 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.04 · official $26.04 (match) · 2317 history records