Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97f2…00d3 politics 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 144L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$16
politics 34% −$14
sports 9% −$38
crypto 6% −$2
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 149 -2.5% -11.8% 3% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)149 / 152
History coverage135d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $224 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $249 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $279 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $343 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $361 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $356 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $437 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $176 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $426 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $369 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $389 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $435 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $399 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $169 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 16h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 18h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 23h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 27h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 30h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 30h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 38h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.96 · official $81.96 (match) · 463 history records