Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97ee…31cc crypto 266 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+1%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate77%204W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$49
14 days+$55
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$27
world 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
other 0% −$12
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.9% -5.1% 76% 32% -5.2%
≤30d 80 -9.0% -17.7% 71% 21% -6.9%
≤90d 255 -0.9% -10.4% 77% 37% -9.9%
all 266 -1.8% -11.1% 77% 37% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 37% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 14% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 7% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses204 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage128d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$7 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $131 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$13 -32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +204%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$7 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $62 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $61 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $98 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $34 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $54 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 669 history records