Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x97e7…6007 crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$317 (-10%) realized −$315 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%41W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$237
14 days+$207
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$490
other 19% +$224
sports 4% +$28
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +49.9% +35.6% 50% 50% +46.0%
≤30d 30 +16.3% +5.2% 43% 43% +21.2%
≤90d 30 +16.3% +5.2% 43% 43% +21.2%
all 96 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 42% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 42% -14.6%
10% -21.0% 38% -22.8%
15% -28.6% 36% -30.3%
20% -35.6% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses41 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)96 / 111
History coverage134d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $52 +$26 +50%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $33 +$18 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 Jun 22 $10 −$9 -86%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -86%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$6 -49%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026- Jun 22 $10 +$24 +233%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +16%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$7 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $32 +$115 +365%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $28 −$20 -71%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$22 -67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $34 +$74 +216%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $57 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 16 $23 +$17 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 16 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 16 $20 +$21 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 16 $11 +$29 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$13 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 14 $29 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 13 $2 +$10 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 13 $64 −$47 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 13 $30 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 13 $40 +$32 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 11¢ $14 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $52 2h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $52 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 3h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $33 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 4¢ $1 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 SELL 4¢ $1 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 6¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 30¢ $10 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 41¢ $10 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026- BUY 29¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde BUY 42¢ $9 30h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/ BUY 38¢ $5 30h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde BUY 48¢ $6 30h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $15 30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.93 · official $183.93 · 406 history records