Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97e4…85c4 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-9%) realized −$48 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$107
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$141
world 5% $0
sports 1% −$6
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -45.9% -51.0% 20% 18% -23.2%
≤30d 52 -31.2% -37.7% 31% 29% -22.5%
≤90d 52 -31.2% -37.7% 31% 29% -22.5%
all 52 -31.2% -37.7% 31% 29% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 29% -22.5%
10% -43.7% 25% -30.0%
15% -49.1% 21% -36.7%
20% -54.1% 15% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)52 / 60
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $343 +$65 +19%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 25 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 23? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $2 +$3 +164%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -90%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $6 +$16 +270%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $6 −$3 -47%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +73%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +120%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +40%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 11¢ $5 23m
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 11¢ $1 23m
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $47 33m
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 38¢ $279 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 41¢ $49 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 14¢ $49 11h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No $48 11h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 45¢ $1 44h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 44¢ $43 44h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No $0 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No $4 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No $3 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $3 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 36¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 36¢ $8 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 36¢ $31 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 36¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 36¢ $11 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $15 2d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $2 2d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $31 3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 23? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.70 · official $264.91 (match) · 176 history records