Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

97 0x97e2…fcd8 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$128 (+7%) realized +$123 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate25%4W / 12L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$107per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days−$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.0%	-9.5%	0%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	9	-8.1%	-16.8%	11%	0%	-14.4%
≤90d	10	-17.3%	-25.2%	10%	0%	-39.2%
all	16	-16.0%	-24.0%	25%	12%	+13.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.0%	12%	+13.0%
10%	-31.3%	12%	+2.2%
15%	-37.9%	12%	-7.6%
20%	-44.0%	6%	-16.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$15 · ×5.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage

Net worth$582

Realized+$123

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses4 / 12

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage635d

Avg bet$107

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	57¢	57¢	$577	$582	+$5 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$99	$0	+0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 08	$3	$0	+0%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$33	−$14	-42%
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 04	$19	$0	+0%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 03	$30	$0	+0%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 03	$30	$0	-0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3?	Jun 03	$1	$0	-36%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 3?	Jun 03	$1	$0	+0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	May 27	$100	+$5	+6%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual	Mar 27	$69	−$69	-100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	Feb 25	$101	+$10	+10%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?	Feb 18	$499	+$202	+40%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jan 24	$42	−$20	-47%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?	Nov 09	$204	+$136	+67%
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	Nov 04	$4	$0	-0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Sep 25	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$584	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$99	39h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Anyones Legend	20¢	$3	14d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	75¢	$19	18d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	22¢	$17	18d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	22¢	$2	18d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$33	18d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03?	BUY Yes	46¢	$30	19d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	SELL Yes	68¢	$30	19d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	19d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 3?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	19d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	19d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$105	26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$100	27d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual	BUY EDward Gaming	75¢	$69	87d
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	SELL No	94¢	$111	117d
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	BUY No	85¢	$101	117d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$701	124d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?	BUY Yes	71¢	$499	124d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	SELL Japan	100¢	$27	149d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	BUY China	3¢	$2	149d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	SELL China	3¢	$2	149d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	BUY Japan	74¢	$20	149d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	BUY China	27¢	$20	149d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?	SELL Yes	63¢	$340	225d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?	BUY Yes	38¢	$200	229d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?	BUY Yes	38¢	$4	230d
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	SELL No	97¢	$4	230d
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	BUY No	97¢	$3	230d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.87 · official $581.87 (match) · 35 history records