Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97e1…ad44 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$219 (+43%) realized +$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$61
other 6% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 40% -18.0%
≤30d 10 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 40% -18.0%
≤90d 10 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 40% -18.0%
all 10 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 40% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 40% -18.0%
10% +20.2% 40% -25.8%
15% +8.6% 40% -33.0%
20% -2.1% 40% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$9 +9%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $321 −$20 -6%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 −$49 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 +$44 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 74¢ $110 29m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 67¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $544 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 7¢ $21 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $301 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 59¢ $50 20h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 41h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 1¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records