Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97df…3088 other 939 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 227d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,038 (+9%) realized +$10,065 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate78%675W / 194L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$4,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 228d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,008
sports 44% −$354
world 6% +$12
crypto 2% +$7
weather 1% +$106
tech 1% +$88
economics 0% +$61
culture 0% −$79
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 63 +1.3% -8.4% 81% 19% -6.7%
≤90d 511 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 6% -9.0%
all 869 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 10% -8.7%
10% -18.5% 8% -17.5%
15% -26.4% 6% -25.5%
20% -33.6% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$4,979
Realized+$10,065
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses675 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions78
Markets (closed)869 / 939
History coverage228d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 869 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $482 $484 +$2 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $461 $462 +$2 (+0%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $366 $375 +$9 (+2%)
Will Jordan win the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $235 $235 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $181 $178 −$3 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win the World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $175 $175 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 99¢ $168 $167 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $133 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will Australia win the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $133 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $124 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Panama be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jordan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 99¢ $101 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scotland win the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa win the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $28 $79 +$51 (+184%)
Will Haiti finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 96¢ 99¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will Iran win the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 76¢ $86 $66 −$20 (-23%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 59¢ 53¢ $67 $60 −$7 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 10 $52 +$5 +10%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026- May 30 $82 −$28 -34%
Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 s May 30 $102 +$73 +71%
Will Atalanta qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Confere May 26 $526 +$2 +0%
Will Roma qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions L May 25 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Como qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa Leag May 25 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Osasuna place 17th for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 25 $81 −$76 -94%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 25 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Roma qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa Leag May 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A seaso May 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $73 +$39 +54%
Will Francesco Camarda be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A s May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Evan Ferguson be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A seaso May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Assane Diao be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kenan Yildiz be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $175 +$42 +24%
Will Artem Dovbyk be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Paulo Dybala be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lecce be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season? May 24 $43 +$5 +11%
Will Cremonese be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season? May 24 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Lecce place 17th for the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 24 $73 +$2 +2%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the player with the most assists in the 2025–2 May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Granit Xhaka be the player with the most assists in the 2025–26 E May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed Kudus be the player with the most assists in the 2025–26 May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premie May 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Jack Grealish be the player with the most assists in the 2025–26 May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Rayan Cherki break the Premier League assists record? May 24 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Bournemouth qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 24 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi May 24 $306 +$4 +1%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $198 +$100 +50%
Will Athletic Bilbao place 17th for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Espanyol place 17th for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ciro Immobile be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A seaso May 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will Edin Dzeko be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 24 $50 $0 +1%
Will Moise Kean be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Confere May 24 $264 +$3 +1%
Will Osasuna be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $389 −$24 -6%
Will Valentin Castellanos be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie May 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Valencia qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Confere May 24 $483 +$9 +2%
Will Alavés be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $498 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $134 1h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $135 1h
Will Jordan win the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $7 2h
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will Paraguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will South Africa reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $68 2h
Will France be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will Jordan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $124 2d
Will Brazil be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will North America (CONCACAF) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Cape Verde be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Grou BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY No 95¢ $14 2d
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Czechia be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group S BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will Cape Verde be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Grou BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win the World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,978.89 · official $4,980.67 (match) · 3500 history records