Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97dd…5db8 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$1
world 27% $0
politics 27% +$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 6% -9.8%
all 52 -0.7% -10.1% 31% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage282d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $4 $0 -10%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $21 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 12 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $42 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $42 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $4 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $17 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records