Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97dd…b190 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$893 (+81%) realized +$893 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$68
politics 49% +$924
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 45% -17.9%
≤30d 42 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 45% -17.9%
≤90d 42 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 45% -17.9%
all 48 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 44% +58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% +58.8%
10% -21.1% 29% +43.6%
15% -28.7% 21% +29.7%
20% -35.7% 12% +17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +76% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$9 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.23 per $1 lost it wins $5.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$893
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage574d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $9 +$16 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$25 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +33%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $386 +$898 +233%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 22 $83 −$5 -6%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $20 +$56 +282%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 46h
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 2d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records