Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

97 0x97db…a211 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +172% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip

Net edge+127%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day18.1pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+146.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+172.1%	+146.2%	35%	30%	+16.7%
≤30d	20	+172.1%	+146.2%	35%	30%	+16.7%
≤90d	20	+172.1%	+146.2%	35%	30%	+16.7%
all	20	+172.1%	+146.2%	35%	30%	+16.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+146.2%	30%	+16.7%
10%	+122.6%	30%	+5.6%
15%	+101.1%	30%	-4.6%
20%	+81.4%	25%	-14.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +172% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -40% → late +384% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$89 vs −$22 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 27

History coverage2d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day18.1

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	Yes	9¢	9¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	+$65	+211%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$26	+$5	+17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$401	−$120	-30%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$50	+50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$5	+$66	+1290%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New	Jun 16	$10	+$320	+3113%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$3	$0	+10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first?	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$38	+$120	+317%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$50	−$27	-54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$51	−$36	-72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng	BUY	19¢	$41	31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY	3¢	$10	35m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$19	44m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	46m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	92¢	$53	46m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	88¢	$23	48m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$4	55m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$25	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$31	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	64¢	$281	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$401	2h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	2¢	$8	8h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	2¢	$5	9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026	BUY	17¢	$5	19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	32h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria	BUY	4¢	$10	35h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	6¢	$8	35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	6¢	$5	35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New	SELL	96¢	$331	40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5	SELL Over	6¢	$3	47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	14¢	$31	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	37¢	$20	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5	BUY Over	5¢	$3	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New	BUY	3¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.98 · official $70.11 · 45 history records