Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x97da…d63b sports 307 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$798 (+5%) realized +$759 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%152W / 154L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,138
politics 3% −$215
other 2% −$40
world 0% −$61
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 32 -36.3% -42.4% 34% 34% -33.0%
all 306 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 48% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 48% -5.5%
10% -15.2% 47% -14.5%
15% -23.4% 47% -22.8%
20% -30.9% 44% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$51 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$759
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses152 / 154
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 307
History coverage602d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $105 $144 +$39 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Utah Mammoth advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights May 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $119 −$119 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $143 +$57 +40%
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? May 04 $70 +$130 +186%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $70 +$80 +114%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 29 $94 −$94 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 26 $60 +$39 +65%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $98 +$99 +101%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $118 +$80 +67%
Will Pittsburgh Penguins advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? Apr 21 $118 −$80 -68%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $116 −$116 -100%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 20 $138 +$62 +45%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 $87 +$61 +70%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Oilers vs. Sharks Apr 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Predators vs. Ducks Apr 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Bruins vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 $44 +$26 +59%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $41 +$29 +70%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $86 +$78 +90%
Ducks vs. Capitals Apr 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Red Wings vs. Senators Apr 07 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jan 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Bruins vs. Sharks Jan 05 $122 −$122 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Nov 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Kraken vs. Islanders Nov 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sabres Nov 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Bruins vs. Ducks Nov 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Wild vs. Penguins Nov 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bruins vs. Kings Nov 22 $61 +$104 +170%
Hurricanes vs. Wild Nov 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Nov 20 $113 +$100 +89%
Kraken vs. Red Wings Nov 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Devils vs. Lightning Nov 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Nov 19 $100 +$104 +104%
Blue Jackets vs. Jets Nov 19 $170 +$100 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Nov 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Canucks vs. Panthers Nov 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Wild Nov 18 $116 −$116 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Nov 18 $225 +$153 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 1h
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 28¢ $29 50d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 45¢ $90 50d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $143 52d
Utah vs. Golden Knights BUY Utah 45¢ $91 57d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Wild 46¢ $70 58d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Ducks 41¢ $5 58d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Ducks 41¢ $17 58d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Ducks 41¢ $3 58d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Ducks 41¢ $15 58d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 61¢ $62 59d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 47¢ $94 60d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 49¢ $98 62d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Canadiens 24¢ $48 65d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 60¢ $120 65d
Will Pittsburgh Penguins advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? SELL Yes 19¢ $38 66d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 58¢ $116 66d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Wild 45¢ $90 66d
Senators vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $118 66d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $13 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $9 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $3 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $10 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 69¢ $2 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.55 · official $143.55 (match) · 902 history records