Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97d9…88bb other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-6%) realized −$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$90
world 12% +$15
sports 9% +$29
politics 3% +$5
economics 1% −$6
crypto 0% −$4
culture 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.1% -21.4% 44% 33% -7.5%
≤30d 9 -13.1% -21.4% 44% 33% -7.5%
≤90d 16 +2.4% -7.4% 44% 38% -16.2%
all 42 -22.2% -29.6% 31% 24% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 24% -17.9%
10% -36.4% 21% -25.7%
15% -42.5% 19% -32.9%
20% -48.2% 17% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage228d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $229 $228 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$19 +9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $15 +$25 +169%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $5 +$3 +67%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $20 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +122%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $60 −$23 -38%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -61%
ECB rate cut in 2025? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$38 +376%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December meeting? Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01? Dec 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Dec 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Google say "Privacy" during earnings call? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $3 +$13 +369%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $229 50m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $205 16h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 35h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $23 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 47d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 34¢ $40 56d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 57d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 74d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 75d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 83d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 84d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 94d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.52 · official $227.52 (match) · 91 history records