Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x97d6…69e1 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,269 (-25%) realized −$6,269 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$673per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,313
7 days−$1,944
14 days−$1,944
30 days−$6,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$3,903
sports 35% −$2,175
crypto 4% +$381
world 2% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +329.2% +288.4% 50% 50% -46.5%
≤30d 31 +88.8% +70.8% 35% 35% -40.6%
≤90d 37 +73.1% +56.6% 41% 41% -35.3%
all 37 +73.1% +56.6% 41% 41% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.6% 41% -35.3%
10% +41.6% 32% -41.5%
15% +28.0% 24% -47.2%
20% +15.4% 19% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$713) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +173% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$503 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6,269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage32d
Avg bet$673
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$432 +212%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$41 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $324 −$320 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$211 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $581 +$1,031 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,980 −$2,973 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $805 +$161 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$224 +219%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $999 +$381 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $236 −$233 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,120 −$1,012 -90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $611 −$312 -51%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $307 −$300 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 28 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 28 $1,814 −$1,800 -99%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 26 $2,317 +$663 +29%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2,017 +$235 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $1,110 −$1,100 -99%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,317 +$562 +24%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 24 $697 +$280 +40%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $199 +$130 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $687 −$398 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $713 +$75 +10%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $931 +$300 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $404 +$153 +38%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $304 +$223 +73%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $632 52m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $59 57m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $271 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $268 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $524 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $316 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $161 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $71 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $581 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,980 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $375 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $367 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 90¢ $224 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $805 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $151 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 82¢ $254 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $172 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $218 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $304 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $330 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records