Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97d3…8d5a crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$127
other 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -20.9% -28.4% 56% 48% -28.9%
≤30d 27 -20.9% -28.4% 56% 48% -28.9%
≤90d 27 -20.9% -28.4% 56% 48% -28.9%
all 27 -20.9% -28.4% 56% 48% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 48% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 41% -35.7%
15% -41.5% 26% -41.9%
20% -47.2% 11% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$21 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$24 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.86 · official $51.86 (match) · 73 history records