Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
97 0x97d3…1c30 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$307 (+52%) realized +$309 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$36
sports 48% +$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.0% +33.0% 75% 75% +70.1%
≤30d 4 +47.0% +33.0% 75% 75% +70.1%
≤90d 4 +47.0% +33.0% 75% 75% +70.1%
all 4 +47.0% +33.0% 75% 75% +70.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.0% 75% +70.1%
10% +20.3% 50% +53.8%
15% +8.7% 50% +39.0%
20% -2.0% 50% +25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$40 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.68 per $1 lost it wins $8.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$309
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $232 $230 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $204 +$223 +109%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $76 +$121 +158%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $31 +$7 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $235 50m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $427 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $197 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 38¢ $76 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $204 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.90 · official $229.90 (match) · 8 history records