Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x97d3…ef7a sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+17%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%50W / 44L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$111
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$97
other 31% −$6
crypto 21% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +33.5% +20.8% 59% 59% +20.7%
≤30d 94 +18.1% +6.8% 53% 53% +11.8%
≤90d 94 +18.1% +6.8% 53% 53% +11.8%
all 94 +18.1% +6.8% 53% 53% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 53% +11.8%
10% -3.4% 53% +1.1%
15% -12.7% 52% -8.7%
20% -21.3% 50% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses50 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$19 +134%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 +$6 +91%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $6 +$7 +114%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $8 +$8 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $6 +$5 +79%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6 +$5 +90%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +123%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$4 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$8 +398%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +110%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0. Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $7 +$7 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 +$4 +89%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$15 +291%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 9h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $6 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 32h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $6 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 35h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $7 2d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.57 · official $9.57 (match) · 162 history records