Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97d3…3f3c world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14,990 (+12%) realized +$14,922 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate87%77W / 12L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,119per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$2,070
other 5% +$125
culture 1% +$3
politics 1% +$11
sports 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.8% -5.1% 86% 21% -9.1%
≤30d 52 +5.8% -4.3% 88% 13% -7.4%
≤90d 89 +3.2% -6.7% 87% 12% -7.5%
all 89 +3.2% -6.7% 87% 12% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 12% -7.5%
10% -15.6% 8% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -23.8% 3% -24.5%
20% -31.2% 1% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,042) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$215 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$3,464
Realized+$14,922
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses77 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)89 / 108
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1,119
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $862 $872 +$9 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $815 $819 +$4 (+0%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No 86¢ 87¢ $307 $311 +$3 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $240 $243 +$3 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 65¢ 68¢ $216 $226 +$10 (+5%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $209 $211 +$2 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $184 $180 −$4 (-2%)
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No 78¢ 83¢ $151 $161 +$10 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $74 $82 +$8 (+11%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $49 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? No 85¢ 92¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 88¢ 93¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? No 36¢ 39¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 82¢ 84¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $18 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2,835 +$107 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5,041 +$105 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5,229 +$141 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 16 $3,412 +$81 +2%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 16 $64 +$8 +12%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $179 +$5 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Jun 15 $365 +$14 +4%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 14 $37 +$5 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,149 +$534 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6,821 −$1,199 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,617 +$191 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,369 +$101 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,230 +$103 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6,916 −$24 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $167 +$14 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $1,186 +$18 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $231 −$31 -14%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $191 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 08 $230 +$21 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $24 −$3 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1,042 +$30 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $3,507 +$4 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 05 $108 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $6,651 +$504 +8%
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Jun 04 $66 +$5 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 03 $18 +$6 +35%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,159 −$12 -1%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? Jun 01 $421 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,204 +$650 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $550 +$10 +2%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Jun 01 $46 +$3 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $102 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $201 +$2 +1%
NATO article 5 before 2027? May 30 $43 +$3 +6%
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? May 30 $216 +$14 +6%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 30 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? May 29 $170 +$4 +2%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? May 28 $12 +$5 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $296 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $87 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $346 +$5 +2%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? May 27 $432 +$7 +2%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? May 27 $170 +$7 +4%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $67 +$2 +3%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $93 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 45m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 46m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 46m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 46m
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $33 2h
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $234 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $239 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $193 11h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 14h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $83 15h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 15h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $70 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,464.26 · official $3,464.25 (match) · 3500 history records