Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97cf…56bd other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$129 (-4%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$5
other 30% −$14
sports 10% −$110
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -34.2% -40.5% 21% 4% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 4% -14.4%
10% -46.1% 4% -22.6%
15% -51.4% 4% -30.0%
20% -56.1% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$985
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage632d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $985 $985 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $513 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $116 +$99 +85%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Jan 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $12 −$12 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $985 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $499 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $512 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $500 10h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $513 10h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 10h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 36h
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 282d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 341d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 365d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL No 76¢ $4 400d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY No 76¢ $4 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 403d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $3 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 99¢ $5 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 100¢ $5 405d
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 405d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $2 407d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 411d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 413d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $6 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 415d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 419d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 419d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $984.51 · official $984.51 (match) · 50 history records