Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97c8…f288 crypto 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$865 (-15%) realized −$863 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%83W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$120
14 days−$251
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$926
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -51.3% -55.9% 15% 15% -41.5%
≤30d 151 +32.3% +19.7% 44% 41% -24.8%
≤90d 197 +19.7% +8.3% 42% 39% -27.5%
all 197 +19.7% +8.3% 42% 39% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 39% -27.5%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 34% -34.5%
15% -11.5% 25% -40.8%
20% -20.2% 20% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$863
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses83 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$38 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$24 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$24 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$24 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$19 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 05 $35 −$25 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $19 +$69 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $18 +$15 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $34 +$17 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $17 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $62 −$33 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $33 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 26 $139 −$127 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 26 $19 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 26 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 26 $75 −$43 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 26 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $75 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $112 +$51 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $61 −$27 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.65 · official $4.65 (match) · 3500 history records