Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97c4…40c5 crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+5%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%69W / 28L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$56
14 days−$19
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.9% -14.9% 67% 56% -14.2%
≤30d 97 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 63% -6.7%
≤90d 97 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 63% -6.7%
all 97 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 63% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 63% -6.7%
10% -15.4% 49% -15.6%
15% -23.6% 36% -23.8%
20% -31.1% 26% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses69 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage28d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$11 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.22 · official $31.22 (match) · 168 history records