Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x97be…9394 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,012 (-4%) realized −$1,012 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,511per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,788
7 days−$1,788
14 days−$1,788
30 days−$1,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1,497
other 25% −$290
crypto 16% −$2,976
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.5% -21.8% 20% 20% -15.2%
≤30d 5 -13.5% -21.8% 20% 20% -15.2%
≤90d 8 +32.9% +20.2% 50% 38% -15.0%
all 19 -1.9% -11.3% 42% 37% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 37% -15.1%
10% -19.8% 21% -23.2%
15% -27.5% 11% -30.6%
20% -34.6% 11% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$358 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,012
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage171d
Avg bet$1,511
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $446 −$27 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $4,112 −$2,965 -72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,034 −$289 -4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $7,665 −$630 -8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $9,332 +$2,124 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 28 $14 +$35 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 28 $8 +$6 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28? Apr 28 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 08 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 24 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Feb 24 $11 $0 -3%
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Zamalek SC vs. Petrojet SC: O/U 3.5 Jan 29 $7 +$2 +28%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jan 27 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7AM ET Jan 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $365 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $391 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $189 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $483 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $977 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1,185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $755 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $578 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $617 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 58¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 58¢ $6,740 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $54 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $6,980 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $6,996 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records