Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97be…1d49 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$4
world 25% $0
politics 18% $0
other 13% $0
culture 12% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.5% -10.8% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -1.5% -10.8% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage303d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $29 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 20 $158 +$3 +2%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $4 $0 +5%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Aug 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $9 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $1 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records