Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97ba…fc2e other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$895 (-25%) realized −$895 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,161
7 days−$908
14 days−$908
30 days−$908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$707
sports 20% −$541
other 16% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +10.1% -0.4% 31% 28% -45.6%
≤30d 36 +10.1% -0.4% 31% 28% -45.6%
≤90d 40 +5.0% -5.0% 32% 30% -42.7%
all 40 +5.0% -5.0% 32% 30% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 30% -42.7%
10% -14.1% 25% -48.2%
15% -22.4% 20% -53.2%
20% -30.0% 18% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$73 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$895
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage76d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$82 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$27 +26%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $480 −$478 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $184 −$182 -99%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$55 +54%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $10 +$81 +784%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$90 +874%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$81 +784%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 13 $432 −$418 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 13 $364 +$69 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 13 $305 +$59 +19%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omeg Apr 13 $57 −$56 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $186 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $135 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $128 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 84¢ $480 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $184 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 17¢ $26 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 47¢ $51 38h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 40h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 39¢ $25 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $156 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records