Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b6…c15b other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$14
politics 28% −$8
sports 6% −$29
economics 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -2.5% -11.8% 5% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage133d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $137 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $346 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $181 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $142 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $324 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $159 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $344 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $195 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $355 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $321 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 4h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 4h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 47h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $137 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $137 25d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $178 25d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $178 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $152 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $152 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $194 29d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $194 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $142 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $142 31d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 31d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $187 32d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 32d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 33d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $193 33d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $193 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records