Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b5…5da1 crypto 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%315W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$6
sports 3% −$5
other 2% −$4
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 64% -11.5%
≤30d 258 -0.1% -9.7% 73% 68% -9.5%
≤90d 460 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 63% -11.7%
all 460 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 63% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 63% -11.7%
10% -21.6% 47% -20.1%
15% -29.2% 32% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses315 / 145
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)460 / 462
History coverage81d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.01 · official $2.01 (match) · 1113 history records