Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b4…9c7a other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-6%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$9
sports 30% +$13
world 16% −$7
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +15.2% +4.2% 43% 43% -7.0%
≤30d 29 +11.2% +0.6% 41% 41% -11.5%
≤90d 29 +11.2% +0.6% 41% 41% -11.5%
all 29 +11.2% +0.6% 41% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 41% -11.5%
10% -9.0% 38% -20.0%
15% -17.8% 34% -27.7%
20% -25.9% 34% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +199%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +219%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +408%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $1 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $8.74 (match) · 77 history records