Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b3…4a85 sports 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,219 (-2%) realized −$1,958 · open +$739
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%283W / 296L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$557est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,909
7 days−$1,336
14 days−$1,393
30 days−$1,914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,194
other 33% −$1,693
world 1% +$10
crypto 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 45% -16.4%
≤30d 169 -6.8% -15.6% 46% 43% -17.3%
≤90d 452 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 45% -15.8%
all 579 -2.1% -11.4% 49% 47% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 47% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -19.7%
15% -27.6% 46% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 40% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$101 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$3,606
Realized−$1,958
Unrealized+$739
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses283 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$557
Open positions22
Markets (closed)579 / 601
History coverage114d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $646 $1,072 +$426 (+66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $613 $651 +$38 (+6%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $139 $555 +$416 (+300%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $369 $371 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $201 $199 −$3 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $57 $163 +$106 (+186%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $109 $99 −$10 (-9%)
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 100¢ $34 $89 +$55 (+163%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $93 $78 −$15 (-16%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $40 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+25%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 26¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $32 $7 −$25 (-79%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 22¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $91 −$13 -14%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $32 +$218 +669%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $555 +$445 +80%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $415 +$285 +69%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $315 +$435 +138%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $268 +$99 +37%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $225 −$225 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $702 −$702 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $567 −$567 -100%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $177 −$177 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $514 +$286 +56%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $380 −$380 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $545 −$544 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $348 +$151 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,461 −$1,073 -73%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $175 +$125 +71%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $208 +$102 +49%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $137 +$112 +82%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $64 +$2 +3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $78 +$46 +59%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $148 +$112 +75%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $396 +$14 +4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $98 +$98 +100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $198 +$178 +90%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $74 +$126 +171%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $14 +$36 +257%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $336 +$264 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 +$1 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $283 +$161 +57%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $358 +$142 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $114 +$51 +45%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $257 −$257 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $162 −$162 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 14¢ $45 1h
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $78 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $1,856 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $156 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $75 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $57 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $300 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $580 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 2h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $142 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $305 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $102 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $485 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $367 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 67¢ $162 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,605.89 · official $3,605.90 (match) · 3251 history records