Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97b2…7d53 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-1%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate67%101W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$5
other 25% +$2
sports 9% −$36
politics 6% −$1
world 6% +$2
culture 2% $0
weather 2% −$115
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 98 -7.3% -16.1% 66% 5% -10.8%
all 151 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 5% -10.4%
10% -23.0% 5% -19.0%
15% -30.4% 5% -26.8%
20% -37.2% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses101 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage150d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 102-103°F on May 31? Jun 26 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 26 $98 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $99 $0 +0%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in May? May 30 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $115 $0 +0%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 28 $135 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $130 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 26 $139 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $141 $0 +0%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar May 23 $5 +$3 +76%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 23 $133 $0 +0%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $132 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Harry Wendelken May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $135 $0 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $140 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Donna Vekić win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 14 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $144 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 4-10? May 11 $143 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 10 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $138 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $126 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 09 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of May 4 202 May 09 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 08 $137 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $229 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $134 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Solana Sierra vs Anhelina Kalinina May 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $142 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 06 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $98 25d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 17¢ $1 25d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 25d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 26d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Norway 13¢ $1 26d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 102-103°F on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 27d
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $115 29d
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 62¢ $5 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $130 31d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $4 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $130 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $125 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $125 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 32d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY Dplus KIA 28¢ $2 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $133 35d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar BUY Anhelina Kalinina 56¢ $5 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 36d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp Blue 52¢ $5 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $132 38d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 38¢ $3 38d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $124 38d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $124 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.06 · official $129.06 (match) · 294 history records