Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x97af…9bc6 world 146 markets active 9h ago coverage 79d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,910 (+3%) realized +$9,784 · open −$874
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%85W / 40L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$2,408per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39,822now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$22,873
other 30% +$3,560
politics 11% +$3,886
crypto 4% +$3,399
sports 2% +$506
finance 1% +$116
tech 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +55.9% +41.0% 74% 53% +3.4%
≤30d 58 +24.8% +12.9% 78% 47% +1.0%
≤90d 125 +16.8% +5.7% 68% 35% +1.4%
all 125 +16.8% +5.7% 68% 35% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.7% 35% +1.4%
10% -4.4% 23% -8.3%
15% ← realistic here -13.6% 16% -17.2%
20% -22.1% 13% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,419) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$608 vs −$424 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$39,822
Realized+$9,784
Unrealized−$874
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses85 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions23
Markets (closed)125 / 146
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$2,408
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $11,415 $11,994 +$579 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $5,460 $5,845 +$385 (+7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $3,781 $4,800 +$1,020 (+27%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $3,456 $3,907 +$451 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,920 $3,552 −$367 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $4,512 $3,444 −$1,068 (-24%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1,426 $1,486 +$60 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $950 $1,150 +$200 (+21%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $1,344 $820 −$525 (-39%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $733 $643 −$90 (-12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 28¢ $1,693 $449 −$1,244 (-73%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 68¢ 44¢ $678 $435 −$243 (-36%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $378 $394 +$16 (+4%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 61¢ 96¢ $183 $289 +$106 (+58%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 43¢ 44¢ $172 $174 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $127 $132 +$6 (+5%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 62¢ 68¢ $93 $103 +$10 (+10%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $74 $99 +$25 (+34%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 63¢ 30¢ $137 $64 −$73 (-53%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 75¢ 42¢ $38 $21 −$17 (-45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $74 $18 −$56 (-76%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $45 $3 −$42 (-93%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $376 +$3,410 +906%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $26,895 −$12 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $56 +$69 +124%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $619 +$178 +29%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 24 $60 +$1 +2%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $722 +$650 +90%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,343 +$331 +25%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,419 +$331 +23%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $988 +$972 +98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 23 $33 +$17 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $10,000 +$407 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1,650 +$26 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 21 $296 +$150 +51%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $63 +$37 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$60 +79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $18 +$7 +40%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $948 +$120 +13%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,450 +$50 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $984 +$16 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $935 +$22 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,890 +$262 +5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $1,320 +$174 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4,984 +$112 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $435 +$65 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $544 −$6 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $381 +$610 +160%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $607 +$54 +9%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 13 $196 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 13 $216 +$6 +3%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $450 −$12 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $459 +$61 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $263 +$55 +21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $504 +$85 +17%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $237 +$8 +3%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $250 −$1 -1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3,887 +$116 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $66 9h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $51 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,117 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $1,252 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $415 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $4 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $17 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $2,996 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $15 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $574 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $8 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $871 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $171 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $916 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $119 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $12 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $6 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $6 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $450 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $65 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $52 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $856 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $39 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $60 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $29 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $145 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $3 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $856 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $582 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,822.03 · official $39,822.03 (match) · 3500 history records