trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -18.0% | -25.8% | 50% | 50% | -94.9% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -18.0% | -25.8% | 50% | 50% | -94.9% |
| all | 18 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 56% | 50% | -38.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.2% | 50% | -38.1% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 28% | -44.0% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 17% | -49.4% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 11% | -54.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 20¢ | 10¢ | $372 | $194 | −$178 (-48%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | May 30 | $174 | −$172 | -99% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | May 29 | $6 | +$4 | +64% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 06 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Dec 30 | $4 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 10 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 10 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $16 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | Dec 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | Dec 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Dec 03 | $2 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Inter Milan beat Monterrey? | Dec 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid beat Athletic Club? | Apr 20 | $3 | +$2 | +77% |
| Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Apr 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20? | Apr 20 | $4 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2025-04-17? | Apr 17 | $5 | +$2 | +34% |
| Will Inter vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Apr 16 | $4 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | Apr 16 | $10 | −$4 | -38% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $142 | +$60 | +42% |