Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97ab…a19f weather 556 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,995 (+7%) realized +$7,965 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate77%417W / 127L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day74.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,617
politics 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +5.3% -4.7% 96% 24% -4.6%
≤30d 433 -5.1% -14.2% 75% 28% -7.5%
≤90d 544 -2.9% -12.1% 77% 29% -7.5%
all 544 -2.9% -12.1% 77% 29% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 29% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 20% -16.3%
15% -28.2% 17% -24.4%
20% -35.2% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$65 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$3,946
Realized+$7,965
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses417 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)544 / 556
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day74.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1,250 $1,282 +$33 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $980 $995 +$15 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $492 $476 −$16 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? No 98¢ 95¢ $294 $286 −$8 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $187 $194 +$7 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $178 $181 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $127 $129 +$2 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? No 88¢ 1¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,607 +$25 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $286 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $264 +$36 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $357 +$23 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $356 +$71 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $269 +$31 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $267 +$13 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$15 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $520 +$80 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $395 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $139 +$4 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $391 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $149 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $286 +$14 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $105 +$53 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $492 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $164 +$36 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $274 −$273 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,005 +$116 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $426 +$74 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $145 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $374 +$26 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $430 +$70 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $186 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $699 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $373 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $451 +$31 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,898 +$547 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $475 +$25 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $81 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $384 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $5 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $131 18m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $1 18m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $1 18m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $252 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $508 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $127 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $343 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $255 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $95 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $125 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,946.49 · official $3,946.49 (match) · 3500 history records