Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a9…4a31 other 19 markets active 3h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,286 (+10%) realized +$1,092 · open +$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$683per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$6,924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,369
crypto 2% +$185
sports 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 57% +9.6%
≤30d 14 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 57% +9.6%
≤90d 14 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 57% +9.6%
all 14 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 57% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 57% +9.6%
10% -16.4% 57% -0.9%
15% -24.5% 57% -10.4%
20% -31.9% 43% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$188 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6,924
Realized+$1,092
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$683
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $6,626 $6,795 +$169 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 28¢ 35¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,820 +$1,152 +41%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,001 −$726 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,000 +$476 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$185 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $6,641 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,767 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,019 5h
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $102 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $599 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $204 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $274 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $799 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 31h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,476 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,000 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $438 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,923.69 · official $6,923.69 (match) · 33 history records