Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a8…13a5 sports 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$248 (+5%) realized +$283 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%102W / 81L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$492
14 days+$492
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$554
crypto 8% −$157
other 4% −$69
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +21.8% +10.2% 57% 51% +3.0%
≤30d 148 +21.8% +10.2% 57% 51% +3.0%
≤90d 183 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 51% -2.0%
all 183 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 51% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 51% -2.0%
10% -5.1% 42% -11.4%
15% -14.2% 33% -19.9%
20% -22.6% 27% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$283
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses102 / 81
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 194
History coverage72d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $60 +$15 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$16 -53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 +$55 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$41 +139%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 +$1 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$12 -80%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $23 +$2 +8%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $55 −$25 -44%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $32 −$10 -31%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$32 +156%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$26 +130%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$19 +95%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$15 +29%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $84 −$20 -23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$13 +126%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +339%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 −$40 -75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$68 +297%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$104 +1008%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $75 19m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $60 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $35 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $91 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $51 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $30 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $31 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $71 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $30 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $20 15h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $18 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $3 15h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 94¢ $17 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $2 16h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $14 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $10 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le SELL Rebels Gaming 100¢ $13 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Rebels Gaming 83¢ $11 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 3¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 99¢ $25 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 91¢ $23 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $3 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $2 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jor BUY 11¢ $7 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $27 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 413 history records