Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97a8…025c politics 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$3
world 28% +$10
economics 12% $0
other 12% −$8
crypto 3% −$21
sports 1% +$2
weather 1% −$3
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 17 +1.4% -8.2% 47% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 25 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 8% -9.2%
all 97 -1.7% -11.0% 44% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage321d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 50¢ $105 $100 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $41 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $127 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $161 −$5 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $104 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$4 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $190 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $61 +$3 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $182 +$1 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $56 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $546 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $600 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $546 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $545 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $48 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $1 $0 +38%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 +7%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $74 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $31 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $41 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $22 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $20 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $59 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $51 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $97 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $110 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $107 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $104 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $96 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $103 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.99 · official $99.99 (match) · 326 history records