Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97a7…1419 crypto 987 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-3%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%590W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$49
14 days−$67
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +73.1% +56.6% 58% 50% -6.9%
≤30d 657 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 25% -10.9%
≤90d 987 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 36% -9.1%
all 987 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 36% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 35% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 32% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses590 / 397
Open positions0
Markets (closed)987 / 987
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 987 Trades
no open positions (211 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $168 +$57 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $107 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $92 −$30 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $72 −$18 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $128 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$15 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $39 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $121 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $227 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$11 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$30 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$8 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $58 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$37 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$14 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $59 +$29 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $39 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$8 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $12 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $14 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $14 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records