Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:56:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x97a7…0cba
world · 173 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$165 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses58 / 104
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)162 / 173
History coverage534d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 11 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 61¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 80¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
HYPE Up or Down on June 10? Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? No 70¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 4? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs LGD Gaming 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -50%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +187%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +40%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -76%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $35 −$7 -21%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 10 $16 +$9 +59%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $22 +$3 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $116 +$3 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +12%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 10 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $33 +$7 +20%
HYPE Up or Down on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -65%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 $0 -7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$4 +125%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $37 −$3 -8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +41%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $6 +$3 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $24 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% −$130
world 19% −$15
politics 16% −$5
other 4% +$6
finance 0% −$14
tech 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $4 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 51m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 2h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $2 2h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ $2 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $19 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $28 2d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 54¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 35% -9.2%
≤30d 79 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 33% -9.1%
≤90d 133 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 27% -20.6%
all 162 -14.3% -22.5% 36% 25% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 25% -12.0%
10% -29.9% 18% -20.4%
15% -36.7% 13% -28.1%
20% -42.9% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.66 · official $32.27 (match) · 966 history records