Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
97 0x97a6…6ef8 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$25 (+16%) realized +$54 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$34
crypto 10% −$6
politics 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +261.0% +226.6% 100% 100% +226.6%
≤30d 5 +33.4% +20.7% 60% 60% +68.6%
≤90d 5 +33.4% +20.7% 60% 60% +68.6%
all 5 +33.4% +20.7% 60% 60% +68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.7% 60% +68.6%
10% +9.1% 60% +52.4%
15% -1.4% 40% +37.7%
20% -11.1% 40% +24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.96 per $1 lost it wins $5.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage35d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 7¢ 7¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 1¢ $34 $7 −$27 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$52 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $25 +$7 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $30 1h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 16d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $24 35d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $25 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.00 · official $70.00 (match) · 17 history records