Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a3…a3fa sports 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$838 (+3%) realized +$832 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%99W / 56L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$242
14 days−$80
30 days+$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$787
other 14% −$49
crypto 3% −$31
weather 0% −$1
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -9.1% -17.8% 53% 41% -6.1%
≤30d 108 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 49% -7.0%
≤90d 108 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 49% -7.0%
all 155 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 50% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 50% -7.1%
10% -18.2% 32% -16.0%
15% -26.1% 23% -24.1%
20% -33.3% 11% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$44 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$832
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses99 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions6
Markets (closed)155 / 161
History coverage101d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 91¢ 89¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+153%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 17 $516 −$4 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$27 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$20 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$17 -51%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$12 -46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$18 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 15 $57 −$3 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$42 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$22 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $525 +$12 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $602 +$93 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$14 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$37 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $80 +$15 +18%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $201 +$29 +15%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $241 +$28 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$15 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$11 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $161 −$96 -60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $410 +$19 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$7 -15%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $291 +$109 +37%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $107 +$36 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$12 -12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$26 -54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $300 −$32 -10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $700 +$11 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$27 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$6 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $228 −$16 -7%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$12 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$7 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 94¢ $512 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 14h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $100 30h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $15 30h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $501 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.32 · official $167.32 (match) · 418 history records