Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97a1…e5b0 crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$84
other 17% −$63
sports 5% −$35
weather 1% −$13
world 1% −$10
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +1.4% -8.2% 46% 45% -11.1%
≤30d 82 +1.4% -8.2% 46% 45% -11.1%
≤90d 82 +1.4% -8.2% 46% 45% -11.1%
all 82 +1.4% -8.2% 46% 45% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 45% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 43% -19.6%
15% -25.0% 38% -27.3%
20% -32.4% 35% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? Jun 27 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$39 +193%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Jun 26 $62 +$5 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $14 −$8 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $97 +$24 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $59 −$3 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $7 +$24 +326%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 +$52 +483%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$15 +140%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +92%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$52 +505%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$27 +92%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $22 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $29 +$11 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 91¢ $59 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 29¢ $20 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 22h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 50¢ $67 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $63 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 35¢ $58 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.83 · official $56.83 (match) · 216 history records