Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a1…d1ee sports 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$403 (+1%) realized +$433 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%150W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$702
7 days−$1,842
14 days−$1,884
30 days+$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,757
other 15% −$1,088
crypto 1% −$173
weather 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -2.9% -12.2% 42% 41% -24.3%
≤30d 178 +18.4% +7.2% 51% 51% -6.8%
≤90d 298 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 50% -8.0%
all 298 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 50% -8.0%
10% -9.7% 48% -16.8%
15% -18.4% 47% -24.9%
20% -26.4% 41% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$91 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses150 / 148
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions4
Markets (closed)298 / 302
History coverage50d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 64¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+8%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 45¢ $130 $106 −$24 (-18%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 66¢ $80 $102 +$22 (+28%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 16¢ $77 $37 −$40 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $366 +$456 +125%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $110 +$88 +79%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$69 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $381 +$190 +50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $289 −$286 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $199 +$91 +46%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $174 −$172 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $319 −$313 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $211 −$208 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $302 −$299 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $212 +$86 +41%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $270 −$267 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $153 +$220 +144%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $348 −$344 -99%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Evans (+1.5) Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $152 +$177 +116%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $202 +$200 +99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $544 +$55 +10%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 13 $161 −$161 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $151 +$172 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $72 +$176 +246%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $99 +$82 +82%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $152 +$178 +117%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz Jun 12 $122 +$111 +91%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $202 +$260 +128%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $212 +$175 +82%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $75 +$119 +158%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $142 −$142 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $243 −$243 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $122 +$178 +145%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $51 +$361 +704%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $254 +$241 +95%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $36 +$34 +97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $81 +$100 +124%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $66 46m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $66 46m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $81 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $152 47m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $79 48m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $771 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 28¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $102 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 52¢ $162 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 48¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $263 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 38¢ $102 2h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) SELL Shelton 100¢ $198 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 46¢ $51 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $81 4h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 52¢ $56 4h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) BUY Shelton 55¢ $110 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $71 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $571 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $381 23h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 62¢ $289 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $289 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $199 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 53¢ $56 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 54¢ $174 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $319 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $211 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 68¢ $302 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.48 · official $407.48 (match) · 632 history records