Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x979e…c008 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$326 (-67%) realized −$327 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$315
crypto 12% −$25
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 -51.5% -56.1% 24% 24% -72.8%
all 17 -51.5% -56.1% 24% 24% -72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 24% -72.8%
10% -60.3% 24% -75.4%
15% -64.2% 24% -77.8%
20% -67.7% 12% -80.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage74d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $21 −$15 -73%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 05 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 05 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 05 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 05 $270 −$234 -87%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Apr 01 $20 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 63d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 63d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 63d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 63d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 63d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 63d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 63d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $21 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $10 69d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 70d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 70d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 53 history records