Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:06:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9797…2532 weather 761 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$642 (+952%) realized +$535 · open +$107
Gross ROI / mkt +183% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +118% what you keep after slip
Net edge+118%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%297W / 244L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day1165.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$11
weather 38% +$93
other 12% +$56
world 2% +$2
politics 2% +$3
culture 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+155.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 541 +182.6% +155.7% 55% 52% +87.6%
≤30d 541 +182.6% +155.7% 55% 52% +87.6%
≤90d 541 +182.6% +155.7% 55% 52% +87.6%
all 541 +182.6% +155.7% 55% 52% +87.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1165.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +155.7% 52% +87.6%
10% ← realistic here +131.2% 51% +69.7%
15% +108.9% 50% +53.3%
20% +88.4% 49% +38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +183% · $-wt +111% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +188% → late +178% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.79 per $1 lost it wins $10.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$535
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses297 / 244
Open positions258
Markets (closed)541 / 761
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day1165.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 258 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? Yes 76¢ $0 $38 +$38 (+76400%)
Will "maherco" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 40¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+39950%)
Will "odablock" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 34¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+33600%)
Will "spreen" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 17¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+17050%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? Yes 11¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+10900%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 22? Yes 18¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+17400%)
Will "trainwreckstv" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 18¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+17950%)
Will "korekore_ch" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 16¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+16300%)
Will "sxb" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+4700%)
Will "n3on" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+3950%)
Will Rhett Marques be the Republican nominee for AL-01? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+5550%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+1800%)
Will "roshtein" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+3949%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+800%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 24? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Joseph Gomes be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+1050%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 24? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+750%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 22? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+500%)
Will "neexcsgo" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+1250%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+550%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 24? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+550%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 22-28? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+900%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? No $0 $0 +$0 (+450%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on June 22 Jun 22 $0 $0 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +279%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +1039%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +581%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 22 Jun 22 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $0 $0 +200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 22 $0 +$1 +1362%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 94°F or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +400%
Will "davooxeneize" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 +103%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $0 $0 +500%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 22 $0 $0 +1000%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 22 $0 $0 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +121%
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 22 $0 $0 +629%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 24? Jun 22 $0 $0 +784%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 22 $0 $0 +243%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +533%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +57%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +89%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +497%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +433%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +1205%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +97%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -83%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +55%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -54%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes $0 4m
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL Yes $0 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY Yes $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 22? BUY Yes $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on June 22 SELL Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 22? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes $0 21m
Will "Fast Charlie" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes $0 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL No $1 23m
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on June 22 SELL Yes $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on June 22 SELL Yes $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.96 · official $105.86 · 3500 history records