Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x9794…6831 sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$845 (-3%) realized −$845 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%113W / 103L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$117
14 days−$126
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$180
sports 44% −$604
world 2% −$391
politics 1% −$69
crypto 1% −$44
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.0% -7.7% 46% 31% -18.5%
≤30d 45 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 31% -14.6%
≤90d 158 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 33% -16.9%
all 216 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 38% -12.4%
10% -17.6% 25% -20.8%
15% -25.6% 18% -28.4%
20% -32.9% 13% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$48 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses113 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage150d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $84 −$10 -12%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +344%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +150%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$3 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $43 −$2 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $82 −$39 -47%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $59 −$12 -20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 +$22 +36%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $57 −$8 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $48 +$10 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$5 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $86 −$35 -40%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $80 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $27 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $75 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $60 +$8 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$11 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$7 -70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $33 −$8 -24%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $22 −$6 -25%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $16 +$5 +32%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $20 −$6 -28%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $17 +$5 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $31 +$25 +82%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$6 -19%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $44 +$40 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $22 −$14 -62%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 27 $77 −$6 -7%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $34 −$7 -21%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $61 −$31 -52%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $98 +$1 +1%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $1 $0 -5%
Istanbul: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Yannick Alexandrescou May 18 $1 −$1 -79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $71 +$23 +33%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $53 +$17 +33%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $1 $0 -22%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 $0 -32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $71 +$18 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 77¢ $27 46m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 72¢ $8 49m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 84¢ $39 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 66¢ $39 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 74¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes $1 13h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $44 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $41 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 81¢ $41 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $43 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $43 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $34 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $48 41h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $48 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $59 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 78¢ $60 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $63 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $81 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $82 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $60 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Enrico Dalla Valle 23¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 654 history records