Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9792…3ee7
sports · 22 markets active 4h ago
3.5score
+$901 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$900 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 3 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $174 $174 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Washington Nationals 62¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 65¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Under 29¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) Pacers 51¢ $1,387 $0 −$1,387 (-100%)
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 66¢ $858 $0 −$858 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 73¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 62¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $18 −$10 -55%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 08 $2 +$7 +400%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 +$6 +203%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $12 +$5 +40%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 08 $19 +$7 +36%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 28 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jan 18 $683 +$657 +96%
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Jan 18 $2,982 +$2,540 +85%
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) Jan 17 $1,387 −$1,387 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 17 $858 −$858 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$900
politics 3% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 26h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 3d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $2 4d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 33¢ $3 6d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 20¢ $2 6d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 9d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 62¢ $15 10d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 12d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 72¢ $16 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $12 13d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $14 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 17d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 73¢ $17 17d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 73¢ $19 22d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 22d
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 54¢ $218 145d
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,764 145d
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 BUY Under 51¢ $683 145d
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) BUY Pacers 51¢ $1,387 145d
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $858 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +65.5% +49.7% 62% 62% -6.6%
≤30d 15 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 33% -45.5%
≤90d 15 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 33% -45.5%
all 19 -10.3% -18.8% 37% 37% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 37% +4.0%
10% -26.6% 37% -6.0%
15% -33.7% 37% -15.1%
20% -40.2% 26% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.87 · official $178.87 (match) · 55 history records