Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9792…b9c3 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-0%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$14
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$28
politics 26% −$31
sports 20% −$38
crypto 9% −$10
economics 7% −$4
world 6% −$7
culture 3% +$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 113 -1.0% -10.5% 13% 0% -10.0%
all 140 -0.9% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage106d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $253 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $357 +$4 +1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $346 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $90 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 04 $57 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $249 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $413 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $64 −$2 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $50 51m
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $42 9h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $47 9h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $47 16h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 16h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 35h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $48 36h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $48 40h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $52 41h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $53 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $52 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $53 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $47 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $48 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $63 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $54 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.02 · official $50.02 (match) · 556 history records