Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9791…a14a weather 867 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$342 (-1%) realized −$417 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%772W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day72.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$147
14 days−$224
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$161
other 7% −$5
world 2% −$4
sports 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 +0.5% -9.0% 87% 16% -10.5%
≤30d 729 +0.1% -9.5% 93% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 856 +1.3% -8.3% 90% 11% -9.6%
all 856 +1.3% -8.3% 90% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 11% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized−$417
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses772 / 84
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)856 / 867
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 856 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $154 $165 +$10 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $145 $148 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $93 $108 +$14 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Yes 39¢ 74¢ $47 $88 +$41 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? No 84¢ 100¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 20 $61 −$48 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $88 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $60 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $60 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $204 −$122 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $109 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $64 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $87 +$13 +14%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 32m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.65 · official $685.71 (match) · 3500 history records